Hard to say

There are many scenarios around but the most probable one is that Mitt Romney was likely to win the Republican nomination, but it’s going to take him a long time to do it. He has high-wage earners, non-evangelicals, and non-very conservatives on his side and they should help him slog to a majority of delegates by May. By this scenario Romney would lose in the south, great plains, and perhaps a rust belt state or two, while racking up large margins in New England, the west, and the territories. Rick Santorum should remain as Romney's only viable rival.

There are some other scenarios, though. What if Santorum wins establishment backing and comes from behind to take the nomination? Doesn’t look possible, but you never really know, do you?

Polls out from Alabama and Mississippi indicate that Romney is actually quite competitive. He's, at worst, a very close second or third in each state, and is actually leading in one recent poll in each state. Part of what's happening in Alabama and Mississippi is what we are seeing all along: a split of Romney's conservative opposition.

He’s rivals can be worried because Romney is doing well among very conservative voters in each state. According to some polls Romney's taking 21% of the very conservative vote in Alabama and 31% of it in Mississippi. If Romney is winning over these voters in the Deep South, then he'd probably win them over anywhere. An unexpected victory like this would likely provide him with great momentum – and calls on the other candidates to exit the race. Even if he isn't reaching into the Gingrich/Santorum base, a win by split-competition could make him the winner.

Newt Gingrich has set up Alabama and Mississippi as must-win contests. The polling indicates that Gingrich is likely to be the first or second (after Romney) candidate in those two states. Gingrich staying in the race actually helps Romney to win states like Illinois and Wisconsin. With a plausible Gingrich campaign continuing, Romney would likely wrap up the nomination probably by May, with a clear majority of delegates.

But remember, these are all just scenarios. Nobody really can tell where is this long story going to end.